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Will solar actually save you money?

I built this calculator because most "solar estimates" are just lead-gen forms in disguise. This one gives you real numbers — system size, cost, payback, 25-year ROI — before you talk to anyone.

Your home details

Four fields. No email. Takes about 30 seconds.

No email required No sales calls Real methodology
Why bother? Because knowing your ballpark numbers before talking to installers means you won't get oversold a system that's too big — or overpay for one that's right-sized.
System size — kW Estimated solar array
Gross install cost — Before any incentives
Net cost (after 30% ITC) — Federal tax credit applied
Annual savings — Year 1 electricity savings
Payback period — Years to break even
25-year ROI — Estimated total return

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How I calculate these numbers

I'm not a solar installer — I'm a researcher who got frustrated with black-box solar calculators. Here's exactly what's under the hood:

System size

I estimate your monthly electricity consumption (kWh) from your bill using state average electricity rates from US EIA monthly data. Then I divide annual consumption by the product of state peak sun hours (from NREL's PVWatts) × 365 × 0.8 efficiency factor to arrive at the required array size in kW.

Install cost

Based on EnergySage's quarterly state-by-state cost-per-watt averages, derived from their installer quote marketplace. I apply a multiplier for non-standard roof types (tile +8%, metal +3%, flat +5%) based on industry-reported install complexity premiums.

Annual savings

I assume the system offsets 90% of your annual electricity consumption, accounting for system losses. Savings are calculated at your state's current electricity rate with a 3% annual escalator, consistent with EIA long-term electricity price projections.

25-year ROI

Net cost after the federal ITC (30%) is subtracted from cumulative savings over 25 years. Savings are escalated at 3%/year for electricity inflation and reduced at 0.5%/year for panel degradation — both industry-standard assumptions.

Important: These are estimates only. A proper site assessment will account for roof orientation, shading, local permitting costs, and utility-specific net metering policies. Use these numbers to gut-check installer quotes — not as a final answer.